Immigration in America – Part 3

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Is Crime by Illegal Aliens a Problem in the U.S.?

This is an issue that was brought to my attention so I thought I’d address it. I was genuinely curious. I mean, I know crime is a problem no matter who commits it but it is doubly painful if it could have been prevented because the criminal wasn’t even around to do the deed. If the burglar of your home was not even legally here in the first place it’s like rubbing salt into the wound. So anyhoo, I decided to look up some statistics on crime, both crimes committed by legal residents and by illegal aliens. Now, I am not a statistician. Hell, I can barely add 2 + 2 and get a correct answer so I am telling you right now that you should check my math. And please, respectfully let me know if I have an error. I’m just a stay at home mom trying to understand what’s going on in my country and share that info with you.

Hypothesis

Before I tell you what I found let me share with you what I thought I would find. Before I even looked at any statistical websites I had a sneaking suspicion that when I compared the crimes committed by illegal aliens to legal residents that I would find comparable percentages. My reason is that people are people across the world so it made sense to me that crime rates would be similar. Let’s see what I discovered.

The Limits of the Study

  1.  The data was hard to come by. I call shenanigans on every politician who throws around numbers but doesn’t make their sources available to the public. This is why it has taken five days to finish this post – I simply had to dig and dig and dig to find reputable sources that could give me what I needed.
  2. I am assuming that the numbers I am using are correct. I only used credible sources. Some numbers, like the number of illegal aliens, is an educated guess by the people who study such things. I did check multiple sources, however, and most agreed closely on the number.
  3. In order to be consistent I had to use a year in which I could find all the data I needed. I have picked 2014 because that was the year I was able to find the most complete numbers.
  4. Some of the numbers may be slightly off because of rounding. Where applicable I rounded to the nearest hundredth.
  5. I will repeat this again: I am neither a statistician nor a mathematician. I am more of the musician sort so it is completely possible that I made an error somewhere. I invite you to check my work and respectfully let me know if I have messed up.

What Did I Find?

I know you’re all dying to know and I’ll bet that at least some of you have skipped everything I wrote above just to get to the cold, hard facts.

Crime by the General Population

According to Census.gov, there were 319,951,923 people in the U.S. as of December 31, 2014. Of those people there was an estimated 11.1 illegal aliens living in the U.S. leaving 308,851,923 legal U.S. residents. Of those 308,851,923 people there were 11,205,833 arrests nationwide excluding traffic violations (fbi.com). Here’s were things get tricky: I could not find a straightforward answer for guilty convictions so I had to do some of my own calculations. According to Paul Coggins, a former U.S. Attorney who now has a private practice in Texas, “About 90 percent of the cases end with a plea bargain, and of those cases going to trial, about 90 percent end in a guilty verdict,” (DallasNews.com). 90% of 11,205,833 is 10,085,249.7 people that are guilty by means of a plea bargain. If you take 11,205,833 – 10,085,249.7 you get 1,120,583.3 people left. Of those remaining 90% are found guilty at trial or 1,008,524.97 people. To get the total amount of people found guilty you need to add 10,085,249.7 + 1,008,524.97 and you get 11,093,774.7 people who ended up with a guilty conviction in 2014. Then you need to subtract the number of illegal aliens from that number: 11,093,774.7 – 177,960 = 10,915,814.7 legal U.S. residents that were convicted of crimes. The ratio of Legal U.S. Residents Convicted: Total Population then is 1:27.84. This means that for every 1 legal U.S. resident there are 27.84 people convicted of a crime or 3.59% of the general legal population is considered a criminal.

Crime by Illegal Aliens

According to the Pew Research Center there were an estimated 11.1 million illegal aliens living in the U.S. in 2014 (pewresearch.org). During that year there were 177,960 convicted illegal aliens removed from the U.S. by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ice.gov). Keep in mind these are just illegal aliens that were removed from the U.S.. This number does not include those allowed to stay after conviction. The ratio of Convicted Criminals removed by ICE:Total Estimated Number of Illegal Aliens is 1:62.37. That means that for every 1 illegal alien deported after being convicted of a crime there were an estimated 62.37 illegal aliens. Another way to put it is this: 1.6% of the illegal alien population in the U.S. are convicted criminals.

Surprise!

So, assuming my calculations are correct, the percentage of legal U.S. criminals is more than double the rate for illegal aliens. Well, call me misinformed. It just goes to show that you can’t trust everything that you read on Facebook, lol.

Morals and Ethics

Here’s where I tell you my concerns.

  1. Somebody is lying. Either my data is skewed (which is possible) or some one is not telling the truth about crime among illegals. The question is why are they lying?
  2. Why are these numbers not readily available? It seems pretty shady to me.
  3. While the above numbers for illegal aliens are less than the general legal population they still should not have been here in the first place to commit the crime. This does not mean I am anti-immigration. I do believe that some people should be allowed into the U.S. but our current system for immigration is broken and dated. I will go into this more in a future post. Unfortunately in the mean time we have the current system and if you aren’t supposed to be here then you are here illegally. I don’t like it but that’s the way it is…. for now. Hopefully by educating people we can work together to change the system.

The End.

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2 responses »

  1. Your data is VERY skewed. You have no idea how many crimes were committed by illegal aliens. You only know how many illegal aliens were DEPORTED as a result of criminal activity. You also don’t know how many illegal aliens are in the US. The number deported is only going to be a subset of the number arrested, and the number in the US is always going to be lower than actual, because of the proverbial shadow. Probably a closer comparison would be to compare the percentage of deported illegal aliens to the percentage of US citizens sentenced to time in prison. I bet the ratios would be very different than in this blog. However, even comparison of those ratios would be terribly flawed, since there is still so much missing information and so many assumptions have to be made. Comparing percentage of deportations to percentage of arrests is comparing apples to oranges. Do you have the statistics of how many illegal aliens are currently in prison? That number must be added to the number deported, and I suspect it will totally change your findings.

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